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What’s expected:
- Consensus estimate +243K (range +150 to +280K)
- Private +190K estimate vs +232K prior
- March +303K
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.8% vs 3.8% prior
- Participation rate: 62.7% prior
- Prior underemployment U6 7.3%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.0% y/y vs +4.1% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.4 vs 34.4 prior
April jobs so far:
- ADP report +192K vs +175K expected and +208K prior
- ISM services employment released Friday at 10 am ET
- ISM manufacturing employment 48.6 vs 47.4 prior
- Challenger job cuts 64.7K vs 90.3K prior (four month low)
- Philly employment -10.7 vs -9.6 prior
- Empire employment -5.7 vs -7.1 prior
- Initial jobless claims survey week 212K
According to BMO, the headline payrolls
print is seasonally positive in April – coming in above estimates 57% of the
time (by an average of 62k), missing 39% of the time (by an average of 50k),
and matching consensus 4% of the time (excl. 2020/21). In terms of the unemployment rate, 44% of previous
reads in April have been lower-than-expected, 36% have been
higher-than-estimates, and 20% have matched forecasts.
Generally these numbers point to a beat but the consensus is the highest since September 2022, which suggests economists have priced in much of the upside already.
Nonfarm payrolls and the consensus est