Q3 CPI from Australia is due at 11.30am local time:
- 0030 GMT
- 2030 US Eastern time
Monthly inflation for September will also be released at the same time.
The CPI data is always keenly awaited, even most so today given this from the latest RBA meeting minutes:
- “the Board has a low tolerance for a slower return of inflation to target than currently expected”
Via Westpac:
- forecast for a 1.1% rise in the September quarter CPI which will see the annual pace ease back from 6.0% YoY to 5.3% YoY.
- core inflation, our Trimmed Mean estimate is also 1.1% QoQ which will see the annual pace ease to 5.0% YoY from 5.9% YoY.
- will also see a moderation in the six-month annualised pace from 4.3% YoY in June to 4.0% YoY in September.
- forecast a 0.2% rise in the September Monthly CPI Indicator which will see the annual pace hold flat at 5.2% YoY
And from ANZ, analysts at the bank taking note of that highlight from the minutes above:
- expect headline CPI to print at 1.1% QoQ and trimmed mean inflation at 1.2% QoQ in Q3.
- This would see the annual measures ease to 5.3% YoY and 5.1% YoY respectively.
- The monthly CPI indicator is forecast to rise 5.4% YoY in September, up from July’s 4.9% YoY low.
- This outcome, particularly for trimmed mean, would cause the RBA some discomfort given its ‘low tolerance for a slower return of inflation to target’ than current forecasts.
I posted previews earlier here: