nonfarm payrolls
The bond market and US dollar backed off in a big way ahead Friday’s 8:30 am ET release of non-farm payrolls but that could unwind in a big way on a strong report. Let’s have a look at the numbers.
- Consensus estimate +180K (range +125 to +285K)
- Private +158K
- September +336K
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.8% vs 3.8% prior
- Participation rate consensus 62.8% prior
- Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.0%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.0% y/y vs +4.2% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.2% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.4 vs 34.4 prior
October jobs so far:
- ADP report +113K vs +150K expected and +89K prior
- ISM services employment not yet released (it’s out 90 mins after NFP)
- ISM manufacturing employment 46.8 vs 50.6 prior
- Challenger Job Cuts -8.8% y/y vs +58.2% prior
- Philly employment +4.0 vs -5.7 prior
- Empire employment +3.1 vs -2.7prior
- Initial jobless claims survey week 200K vs 202K last month (was the lowest since Sept)
According to BMO, the seasonal bias is positive in October with 52% of readings above consensus and 48% below with the average beat at +71 and the average miss at -39K. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has been higher than expected 20% of the time and lower 44% of the time, with the remainder matching estimates.