- Prior 4.10%
- Underlying inflation is moderating
- Cautious about the outlook
- Need to be confident that inflation progress will continue
- Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant
- Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced
- Returning inflation sustainably to target remains the highest priority
- Monetary policy remains restrictive
- The continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are risks on both sides
- Will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide upcoming decisions
- Full statement
There’s really not much to really scrutinise here. The RBA has stuck to the status quo and the main wordings in the statement are consistent with what they communicated in February. The key detail is that they are reaffirming that monetary policy is still restrictive.
Besides that, there’s just a slight change up to the final few passages but they continue to acknowledge that risks to the inflation outlook are still two-sided. Other than that, most of the language remains the same as per the previous meeting.
Traders had priced in ~93% odds of no change coming into the decision. AUD/USD is seen at 0.6256 currently, little changed from before the decision after a brief marginal spike to 0.6264.