Of note, 16 of the 31 economists polled are expecting a 25 bps rate hike with the remaining 15 anticipating a pause instead. That’s pretty much a 50-50 call and if you look at the OIS pricing, the probability of a 25 bps rate hike is only at 37% as opposed to no change at 62% roughly at the moment.
Going back to the poll, you can at least see the nature of the evolution in the hawkish pricing for the RBA over the past month:
Among Australia’s “big four”, only CBA is anticipating no change by the central bank while ANZ, NAB, and Westpac are all expecting a 25 bps rate hike.
Even though the July decision may be a bit split, the overwhelming majority is siding with the notion that the RBA will at least have to hike rates again in August. 25 of 29 economists who replied to that, said the central bank will at least hike once more in August at least.