The Reserve Bank of New Zealand statement is due at 2pm New Zealand time on Wednesday July 12:
- which is 0200 GMT
- and 10 pm US Eastern time on Tuesday July 11
Preview comments via Scoita:
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to hold its target rate unchanged at 5.5%
- The consensus of economists is unanimous in favouring a hold and markets are assigning a very low probability of a hike.
Scotia note how the rate hike cycle has impacted the New Zealand economy:
- The New Zealand economy has mildly contracted for two consecutive quarters, and so the economy is starting to open up disinflationary slack.
Scotia cites the May decision statement:
- the concluding paragraph … was changed to “interest rates will need to remain at a restrictive level for the foreseeable future” from the prior April statement’s reference to how data will guide future moves and that “the extent of this moderation will determine the direction of future monetary policy.” The removal of a bias that was open to future tightening in favour of “remain” guidance signalling a pause was a significant indication that barring material surprises the RBNZ is at a minimum on hold to assess further data and developments and may be done hiking.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike cycle has been aggressive.