The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to lower its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.50% on April 9, according to a Reuters poll of 31 economists—all of whom forecast this move.
- This cut would be the fifth in a row, bringing the total reduction since August 2024 to 175 basis points, as the central bank continues to support an economy emerging from recession.
- Looking ahead, most economists (24 of 27) expect another 25-basis-point cut in May, and the median forecast suggests rates will reach 3.00% by Q3 2025.
- Some expect the rate to fall even further by year-end.
The RBNZ had already hinted at April and May cuts during its February meeting, with inflation expected to remain within its 1%-3% target range. The central bank sees 3.00% as the neutral rate, suggesting room for further easing. Compared to other central banks like the RBA and the Fed, the RBNZ’s stance is notably more dovish.
RBNZ Governor Orr resigned abruptly in March.