There have
been increased talks of a tight oil market in the second half of the year. SEB
thinks that OPEC will not think twice about producing more if tight supply runs
the risk of hurting the global economy.
They think
OPEC would relish the opportunity to produce more oil and still being able to
get close to $85 for it.
Thus, SEB
expects OPEC to step in with verbal intervention if oil prices get close to
$100.
Interesting to note that TS Lombard was also out
with a note yesterday and their view is that there is little chance that OPEC+
will be inclined to provide relief for global oil prices.