Let’s keep this one short. The first key takeaway is that we’re finally starting to see cracks in the labour market as the economic slowdown continues. The downturn in the euro area economy may not be worsening but evidently it is still taking a toll on the jobs market, as employment conditions were seen falling for the first time since January 2021.
The second key takeaway is that inflation pressures are still persisting and not really easing too significantly to warrant an imminent shift in the ECB policy stance. There is a real dilemma for businesses in the services sector especially as subdued demand conditions are calling for price cuts but high input price inflation and increased wage demands are pushing them to pass on higher prices to consumers instead.
Of note, both input costs and
output prices edged higher on the month across the euro area as a whole. And so, that is to say that the inflation debate is not quite over just yet. As HCOB’s chief economist puts it, the ECB now has one of two options. That is either to keep hiking interest rates or to keep rates higher for longer. So, are traders sitting comfortable with that rate cut pricing for March next year? Hmm.