Fundamental
Overview
The S&P 500 has been
rallying steadily this week thanks to positive news both on the tariffs and
inflation front. On Monday, we got a news from Bloomberg that the Trump’s team was
studying gradual tariffs hikes.
On Tuesday, we got a very
soft US PPI report and yesterday lower than expected US Core CPI data. The market pricing edged
higher from 24 bps of easing by year end to 36 bps following the US CPI report.
This week might have marked
the top in inflation hysteria and the repricing in rate cuts expectations,
which should support the market going forward as long as growth doesn’t start
to weaken too much.
S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
S&P 500 Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that the S&P 500 briefly probed below the key 5855 support but eventually bounced back
strongly thanks to a few positive catalysts.
The buyers are now targeting the
most recent lower high around the 6068 level to change the trend with a break
above it. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around the 6068
level with a defined risk above it to position for a drop back into the
support.
S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
S&P 500 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on
this timeframe. The sellers are stepping in around these levels with a defined
risk above the trendline to position for a drop back into the support. The
buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
increase the bullish bets into new highs.
S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
S&P 500 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a couple of key levels here. We have the minor upward
trendline defining the current buildup into the major trendline.
The buyers
will likely lean on the minor trendline to position for a break above the major
trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to
increase the bearish bets into the 5960 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US Retail Sales
data.