The market continues to march higher as the war in
Israel hasn’t spread to other Arab countries. In fact, yesterday the US intelligence has even reported that
Iran was surprised by the Hamas attack. This has weighed on Crude Oil prices
and eliminated the risk of a much bigger spike. Moreover, the US PPI report
yesterday beat expectations, but it was mainly energy driven and the market
brushed it aside as we got a big drop in Oil prices in October and even Fed’s Waller sounded
like a rate hike in November is not coming unless we get a very ugly CPI
report.
S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
S&P 500 Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500
bounced strongly on the lower bound of the rising channel and it’s now eyeing
the top trendline around
the 4440 level. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with more
conviction and a better risk to reward setup to position for another drop into
the lows and targeting a breakout of the channel.
S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
S&P 500 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we had a
strong resistance around
the 4331 level where we had also the confluence with the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
The price broke through it with relative ease which raised the odds for further
upside into the top trendline.
S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
S&P 500 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
got some key breaks in the past few days as the price rallied above the minor
downward trendline and the 4331 resistance. The buyers kept on increasing the
longs as more and more barriers were getting eliminated. Yesterday, we got a bounce
from the red 21 moving average, and
we can expect even more buyers coming into the market if the price breaks above
the most recent high around the 4385 level. The sellers, on the other hand,
will wait around the major downward trendline, but we might see them piling in
already today if we get an ugly CPI report and the price breaks below the 4331
support.
Upcoming Events
Today we will get the most important report of the
week, that is the US CPI report. The market is likely to focus on the core
measures and react positively to lower than 0.4% monthly rate readings. At the
same time, we will also see the latest US Jobless Claims data which is an
important labour market report. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.