The Swiss franc stuck to its June seasonal pattern here, with USD/CHF posting another decline again last month. The early gains helped to offset the change in narrative from the SNB late on in June, so that changes up the dynamic for the pair coming into July. In FX, it’s hard to make out any noticeable seasonal patterns for this month.
However, for stocks, there is one that stands out as Adam pointed out: July seasonals: The S&P 500 has rallied in July for eight straight years
Expanding on that, I just want to highlight how the gains are also largely correlated to a stronger performance in tech shares. Here’s a look at how the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fared over the last 20 July months:
S&P 500 index seasonal pattern (% change)
Nasdaq Composite index seasonal pattern (% change)
Both indices have risen in each of the last 9 July months since 2015. And on an average basis, it is the best performing month for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as well.
Are we going to see stocks make it 10 for 10 in July this year? The first key hurdle will be the US jobs report later this week.