The GBPUSD has moved to a new session low near 1.2526. That is just above the 38.2% retracement of the moveout from the October 2023 low to the December 2023 high. That retracement level comes in at 1.25245.
Earlier today, the price finally moved outside of the 1.2600 – 1.2800 up-and-down trading range. The price also fell below its 200 day moving average of 1.25609. That level is now a risk-defining level for both buyers and sellers. Staying below is more bearish.
After a trend move – in this case higher from the October low – getting below the 38.2% retracement is a minimum to show that sellers are taking more control. Absent that and the move is just a corrective move.
Nevertheless breaking below the 200-day moving out for the first time since November 20 is significant. If the price can stay below that level I would give the sellers the benefit of the doubt (especially after the long period of up-and-down price action from mid-December until today).
GBPUSD tests 38.2% retracement