The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies
As the North American session begins, the CAD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The USD is mixed to lower. US stocks are little changed after falling modestly. Yields are little changed after falling yesterday (10 year yield was down -9.5 basis points yesterday).
Yesterday consumers went to the cyber mall and spent. The sales are estimated to have reached a record high, exceeding $12 billion according to Adobe Digital Insights’ preliminary estimates. Despite concerns about inflation and high interest rates affecting U.S. shoppers, expenditures were expected to break previous records. Retailers responded to the economic pressures on consumers by offering significant discounts and buy now, pay later options. Adobe projects spending between $12 billion and $12.4 billion on various products, from toys to tech gadgets. If spending reached the upper estimate, it would represent a 9.7% increase compared to last year’s Cyber Monday. Wow.
Oil prices are higher in early US trading on expectations that OPEC+ might extend or increase its current production cuts. OPEC+ is scheduled to have an online ministerial meeting on Thursday, which was postponed from Sunday due to disagreements among members about production targets. Saudi Arabia, has been working towards a consensus on the need to cut output further. This move comes in response to a recent drop in oil prices, attributed to concerns of oversupply, especially following high production levels in non-OPEC countries like the United States are at record levels.
The Fed Blackout Period will begin on Saturday ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision on December 13. Judging from the topics only, the speeches from Waller and Bowman are the most relevant heading into the quiet period. Fed’s Powell will get one last shot to address the markets on Friday at 11 AM ET.
Schedule of key events and speeches (in GMT/US Eastern time):
- 10 AM ET: Austan Goolsbee of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago opens the “Who Owns Midwest Farmland? And Why?” conference.
- 10:05 AM ET: Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook at an American Enterprise Institute event.
- 10:45 AM ET: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman discusses “Monetary Policy and the Economy” at a Utah Bankers Association breakfast.
- 1:05 PM ET: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks virtually on the Community Reinvestment Act.
- 2:30 PM ET: Kathleen O’Neill Paese and Mark Gould of the Federal Reserve participate in a discussion on FedNow.
- 3:30 PM ET: Michael Barr discusses the Community Reinvestment Act at the Opportunity Finance Network Fireside Chat.
- The Federal Reserve’s blackout period starts on Saturday
A snapshot of the markets to kickstart the North American session shows:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.81 or 1.08% at $75.66. Yesterday at this time, the price was trading at $74.90
- Spot gold is trading up $1.79 or 0.09% at $2015.41. Yesterday at this time, the price was trading at $2013.12
- Spot silver is trading up $0.05 or 0.20% at $24.67. Yesterday at this time, the price was trading at $24.72
- Bitcoin is trading higher at $37,254. Yesterday at this time, the price was trading at $37,019.
In the US stock market, the major indices are implying a mixed opening:
- Dow Industrial Average is trading up 8.53 points. Yesterday, the index fell -56.68 points or -0.16% at 35333.48
- S&P index is trading down -3.5 points points. Yesterday, the index fell -8.89 points or -0.19% at 4550.44
- NASDAQ index is down -8 points. Yesterday, the index fell -9.83 points or -0.07% at 14241.02
In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading mixed/mostly lower:
- German DAX, -0.13%
- France’s CAC, -0.54%
- UK’s FTSE 100, -0.32%
- Spain’s Ibex, +0.29%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.30% (10 minute delay)
In the US debt market, yields are trading lower:
- US 2Y T-NOTE: 4.872% +1.6 basis points. The level from this time yesterday was at 4.936%
- US 5Y T-NOTE: 4.396% +0.6 basis points. The level from this time yesterday was at 4.44%
- US 10Y T-NOTE: 4.392% +0.4 basis points. The level from this time yesterday was at 4.464%
- US 30Y BOND: 4.536% +0.3 basis points. The level from this time yesterday was at 4.596%
- 2 – 10-year spread closed at -47.9 basis points. The level from this time on Friday was at -47.5 basis points
- 2 – 30 year spread closed at -33.8 basis points. The level from this time on Friday was at -34.5 basis points
In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are trading mixed:
European benchmark 10 year yields