The US non-farm payrolls report was the lone economic indicator on the agenda today and it’s left the market off-balance due to a conflicting household and establishment survey. On net, the odds of a June hike are entirely unchanged at 29% after the data and the US dollar has nearly given up all its gains.
The market is also now pricing in some China stimulus headlines and the hope that more is coming.
Importantly, the Fed blackout starts at midnight and as of right now, there are no Fed speakers on the agenda. One guy who loves to pop up unexpectedly right before the blackout is St Louis Fed President James Bullard but note that yesterday he published an essay. It didn’t have his usual hawkish bent and said that policy was at the lower end of ‘sufficiently restrictive’.
The Fed may also like the 70/30% pricing levels, which given them some flexibility ahead of what will be a critical CPI report the day before the June 14 FOMC decision.
In any case, we will be watching carefully for any Fed headlines ahead of the close. The other item to watch is OPEC+ and potential leaks ahead of this weekend’s meeting.