If you look at the daily averages, the first four trading days of July are among the best days on the calendar over the past 50 years. The average gain on July 1 is +0.27% and the average on July 3 is +0.31% (a top-ten day on the calendar). There are also moderate historical gains on 2nd and 5th, with the 4th a US holiday.
For July as a whole, I wrote about the positive seasonals on Friday. The S&P 500 has rallied for eight straight years in July and futures today are 0.2% higher.
SPX daily
On Friday, the S&P 500 hit a record above 5500 but reversed lower on the day in what could be a warning sign. Given the seasonals though, it’s a tough week to fade the index.