The post-CPI reaction is lacking follow through and I’d pin that on the bond market mostly. 10-year Treasury yields did jump higher on Tuesday to break out of range, but is finding itself limited by its 100-day moving average for now:
US Treasury 10-year yields (%) daily chart
The dollar pulled back as a result while stocks recovered modest ground. Of note, the S&P 500 closed back above 5,000 albeit barely. But a win is a win regardless I would say.
Going back to the dollar, EUR/USD is still unsure of breaking below its December low of 1.0723 and the USD/JPY breakout above 150.00 looks questionable at this stage.
It all comes down to whether or not there is another catalyst to act upon now. And today might offer just that as the attention turns towards the US retail sales data release.
At the balance, this isn’t one that should be as crucial as the inflation numbers earlier this week. However, it could be taken as a supplementary data and supportive argument in following through on price action on Tuesday. So, let’s see if we get that or if traders are going to run back the post-CPI moves instead.