The JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is mixed with modest changes vs the EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD and AUD.

US stocks are little changed. On Friday, the S&P index closed above the 5000 ever, closing at a record level. US/European yields are lower. Last week the U.S. Treasury successfully distributed 3, 10, 30-year coupon issues largely supported by international demand

The crude oil market is trading lower to start the US day. The Saudi Energy Minister indicated OPEC’s readiness to adjust supply. Geopolitical tensions continued with Houthi forces targeting a ship in the Red Sea, ongoing Israeli offensive operations.

RBNZ’s Orr said that inflation remains too high. Last week ANZ said they now expect 2 more rate hikes in 2024.Today, the currency is correcting lower.

Kansas City Chiefs (and Taylor Swift) win the Super Bowl over the SF 49ers in overtime. Usher halftime show was a thumbs up. An estimated 155M global viewers. By comparison, Manchester City vs Milan? 450M global which dwarfs US counterpart. You win. WickedMovie was one of the most “engaged” ads (not most popular but one that led to searches). Our son (the firm he works for) helped launch the site to coincide with the Super Bowl ad. That’s pressure (imagine if it crashed).

The scheduled Fed speak today includes:

Michelle Bowman, Federal Reserve Board Governor: Scheduled to speak on “Defining a Bank” before the American Bankers Association Conference for Community Bankers at 9:20 AM ET local time).

Thomas Barkin, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President: Set to speak before the Atlanta Economics Club at 11:30 AM ET

Neel Kashkari, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President: Will participate in a conversation hosted by the Economic Club of Minnesota at 1 PM ET

Back of England’s Bailey is scheduled to speak at 1 PM ET. This week, the economic calendar is highlighted by the US CPI

• Monday: BOE Gov. Bailey speaks

• Tuesday:NZ inflation expectations, UK Employment, US CPI

• Wednesday:UK CPI,UK Gov. Bailey speaks

• Thursday:AUD employment,UK GDP, US Retail Sales, US unemployment claims

• Friday: UK Retail sales,US PPI, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

On the earnings calendar next week, Shopify, Coca Cola, AIG, Cisco and Coinbase are companies of interest. The Big Daddy of perhaps the entire earnings season will be released on February 21, when Nvidia is scheduled to report. The fate of AI and Ai stocks rests with the chip supplier:

• Tuesday: Shopify,Coca Cola, Marriott, Lyft, AIG

• Wednesday:Kraft Heinz,Albemarle,Twillio,Cisco

• Thursday:,John Deere,Coinbase

A snapshot of the markets as the North American session begins currently shows:

• Crude oil is trading $-0.85 or -1.11% at $75.99. At this time Friday, the price was trading at $76.20
• Gold is trading down $3.19 or -0.16% at $2021. At this time Friday, the price was trading at $2029.69
• Silver is trading up $0.34 or 0.51% at $22.93. At this time Friday, the price was trading at $22.59
• Bitcoin trades at $47,940. At this time on Friday, the price was trading at $47,415. The high today of $48,814 which was the high over the weekend (until now). The low was on Saturday at $47,720.

In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are trading near unchanged. The S&P index closed above 5000 for the first time on Friday (at a record level). Major indices closed higher for the fifth consecutive week, and closed higher for the 14th of last 15 trading weeks.

• Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -22.69 points. On Friday, the index fell 54.64 points or -0.14% at 38671.72
• S&P futures are implying a decline of -0.86 points. On Friday, the index rose 28.70 points or 0.57% at 5026.62. There was a record close
• Nasdaq futures are implying a record of -2.9 points. On Friday, the index rose 196.95 points or 1.25% at 15990.66

In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading higher:

• German DAX, +0.36%
• France CAC +0.38%
• UK FTSE 100, -0.06%
• Spain’s Ibex, +0.57%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.57% (delayed by 10 minutes).

Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixed.

• Japan’s Nikkei 225, closed for holiday
• China’s Shanghai composite index , closed for holiday
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, closed for holiday
• Australia S&P/ASX, -0.83%.

Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower.

• 2-year yield 4.416% -2.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.490%
• 5-year yield 4.119% -3.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.145%
• 10-year yield 4.159% -2.7 basis points.. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.179%
• 30-year yield 4.364% -1.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.375%
• The 2-10 year spread is at -30.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -30.9 basis points
• The 2-30 year spread is at -9.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -11.0 but basis points.

In the European debt market, the benchmark 10-year yields are lower:

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