The economic calendar is a bit light but will be highlighted by the US CPI data on Thursday. The sharp falls due to calendar effects have run its course. The next two months will have low CPI readings of 0.0% and 0.1% drop out of the yearly inflation numbers. So although inflation is expected to rise 0.2% this month, the YoY is expected to rise to 3.3% from 3.0%. It will take a reading of 0.0% or lower to make progress on the YoY inflation readings.
That will keep the option open for Fed officials to say, “Inflation is still too high” and “more tightening is needed”.
Monday, Aug 7:
- 8:15am: USD – FOMC Member Harker Speaks
- 9:30pm: AUD – NAB Business Confidence, Last: 0
Tuesday, Aug 8:
- 1:0pm: USD – 3 year Note Auction
- 9:30pm: CNY – CPI y/y, Estimate: -0.5%, Last: 0.0%
- 9:30pm: CNY – PPI y/y, Estimate: -4.0%, Last: -5.4%
- 11:00pm: NZD – Inflation Expectations q/q, Last: 2.79%
Wednesday, Aug 9:
- 1:01pm: USD – 10-y Bond Auction, Last: 3.86|2.5
Thursday, Aug 10:
- 10th-15th: CNY – New Loans, Estimate: 770B, Last: 3050B
- 8:30am: USD – CPI m/m, Estimate: 0.2%, Last: 0.2%
- 8:30am: USD – CPI y/y, Estimate: 3.3%, Last: 3.0%
- 8:30am: USD – Core CPI m/m, Estimate: 0.2%, Last: 0.2%
- 8:30am: USD – Unemployment Claims, Estimate: 231K, Last: 227K
- 1:01PM: USD – 30-year bond auction
- 4:15pm: USD – FOMC Member Harker Speaks
Friday, Aug 11:
- 2:00am: GBP – GDP m/m, Estimate: 0.2%, Last: -0.1%
- 2:00am: GBP – Prelim GDP q/q, Estimate: 0.0%, Last: 0.1%
- 8:30am: USD – Core PPI m/m, Estimate: 0.2%, Last: 0.1%
- 8:30am: USD – PPI m/m, Estimate: 0.2%, Last: 0.1%
- 10:00am: USD – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Estimate: 71.7, Last: 71.6
- 10:00am: USD – Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Last: 3.4%