The odds of a Fed hike tomorrow have dwindled to 21% in a sign that it will take an extraordinarily strong CPI report to change the Fed trajectory.
The consensus is 4.1% on the headline and 5.3% on the core and I suspect we would need to see a print at least 0.3 percentage points higher to cause a last-minute rethink.
Here are some scenarios from JPMorgan regarding the main headline (via @zerohedge).
USD/JPY is equally straightforward with a higher reading positive and vice versa. The one caveat is the earnings component, which doesn’t have a consensus but was previously +0.1%. A strong acceleration in wage gains would catch the Fed’s eye, even if the headline falls in line with expectations.