This is via Tortsten Sløk, Apollo Chief Economist (Apollo is a US asset management firm).
I don’t think I’d put the probability of a Fed hike just under 50-50 like this, but I can see the possibility (maybe 20% for me).
Also, from the firm’s 2025 outlook, some reasoning (in very brief) why Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rates could rise:
- It is too early to assess the impact of potential new policies following Donald Trump’s election as US president. That said, if implemented, his key policy objectives—lower taxes, higher tariffs, and reduced immigration—could increase rates, boost asset prices, drive inflation, and strengthen the dollar.