The US CPI came in about as expected. The headline number MoM was a bit higher at 0.1% versus 0.0% expected, but the YoY levels came in as expected. The core YoY came in at 4.0%. However, the last six months the core measure is 2.8% which is a step in the right direction. Rents still increased by 0.4% for the month (analyst continued to look for a reversal of that data point).
The stock futures implied before the release:
- Dow Industrial Average up +129.2 points
- S&P index up +10.1 basis points
- Nasdaq index up +66.5
In the US debt market, the levels ahead of the release showed:
- 2-year yield 4.676% -1.1 basis points
- 5-year yield 4.189% -6.1 basis points
- 10-year yield 4.173% -6.5 basis points
- 30-year yield 4.265% -6.4 basis points
Looking at the levels after the release (at 8:42 AM ET), the futures are implying a higher open but off the higher pre-release levels.
- Dow Industrial Average was up +81 points
- S&P index up +4.81 points
- Nasdaq index up +46.01 point
In the US debt market, yields are higher but still down on the day
- 2-year yield 4.709% -1.7 basis points
- 5-year yield 4.233% -1.7 basis points
- 10-year yield 4.81% -1.7 basis points
- 30-year yield 4.317% -1.2 basis points
In the forex, the USD moved lower versus the EUR and GBP (higher EURUSD and GBPUSD), and then reversed back higher (lower EURUSD and GBPUSD). The USDJPY moved lower and then back higher.
EURUSD: The EURUSD extended above its 200-hour moving average 1.0814, and then its 200-day moving average 1.0824 on its way to a high of 1.08264. The price has since rotated back down and trades below 1.0800 at 1.0796
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD traded above it 200-hour moving average at 1.26024 on the spike higher, and reached a high of 1.2614. That was near swing highs from last Wednesday and Thursday. The process reversed lower and now trades back down toward its 100 hour moving average 1.2566.
USDJPY: The USDJPY moved to a low of 144.72 before bouncing back higher. It currently trades at 145.45