The charts speak for themselves today:
Eurozone services PMI
UK services PMI
The market certainly noticed with the euro and pound both dropping today. The pound has fallen particularly hard as the market rethinks the need for rate hikes.
In Canada, there were signs of weakness from Canadian consumers as well.
And of course, China is struggling badly.
The US is the main source of global growth right now but rates continue to ratchet higher. Today we saw data showing mortgage applications plunge and student debt repayments restart in August. JPMorgan says excess savings from the pandemic have run out.
You can point to a few other pockets of global growth, like India, Brazil and parts of southern Europe but the picture is darkening, which is exactly what you would expect with interest rates high.
Up next is the US PMI and I still think it’s premature to see a slump in services spending but it’s increasingly likely in the months ahead and there are some good forward looking portions of the survey.