The market reaction to today’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff announcement from the White House revealed one of two things:
- Sell-the-fact (on the dollar) as this has been telegraphed for a week
- It’s a toothless threat aimed at getting negotiating leverage
I’m biased towards the second explanation for the price action as we’ve continually seen tariff threats faded by the market, and at an increasingly-rapid pace. The dip today in the euro lasted just minutes.
In addition, there was barely even a slump in US equities on these headlines when they started.
I feel more risk at the moment around Congress and the difficult path to pass a tax cut as I see that as mostly (fully?) priced in.