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Tough week for oil as OPEC+ actions fail to deliver gains

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WTI crude oil weekly

WTI crude oil settled lower by $1.10 to $67.20 in the second day of selling following the OPEC+ decision to delay barrels through Q1 and bring them on more-slowly afterwards.

Oil is still within the range of the past month but is dangerously close to a test of the 2024 lows.

There are signs that OPEC’s discipline is spreading to the US. Yesterday Chevron announced that it would lower 2025 capex by $2 billion this year to a range of $14.5-15.5 billion as it said it would prioritize free cash flow over production growth.

US oil production just appear to be close to stalling at levels just above the 2019 peak in a sign the market is well-supplied and investors aren’t looking for growth. That said, production will be rising in Guyana and Canada next year, so demand will have to rise to keep the market balanced.

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