Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 62 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
Following the weak US consumer confidence report, traders increased the easing bets from 59 bps to 62 bps.
- ECB: 51 bps (78% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- BoE: 45 bps (54% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
Following the lower than expected UK CPI figures, traders went from expecting no change to pricing in higher chances of a 25 bps cut at the May’s BoE meeting.
- BoC: 44 bps (72% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
Following Trump’s positive comments on Canada and Mexico, traders revised expectations a bit lower from 46 bps to 44 bps.
- RBA: 63 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
Following the unexpected tax cuts announcement yesterday, traders see less easing this year from 65 bps to 63 bps.
- RBNZ: 60 bps (65% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- SNB: 7 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 36 bps (72% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)