The updated UBS forecasts for China GDP come via Bloomberg, gat5ed.
UBS lowered its forecast for China’s gross domestic product growth this year to 5.2%
- their previous projection was 5.7%
- lowered their 2024 forecast to 5% from 5.2%
Citing reasons including:
- “the weakening of property rebound, slowing momentum of consumption recovery, the falling of exports, and anemic industrial production” so far in Q2
- Analysts at the bank expect ongoing stimulus announcements which should include lowering some taxes and fees, entry barriers, transaction costs, and arrears for enterprises. Such steps are being urged by the State Council.
However, say UBS, sizeable fiscal support may have to wait” until the Politburo meeting, this will be a “key date to watch for a policy package or major policy tone change”.
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UBS, and other analysts have pointed to the July meeting previously. I’ve seen some info suggesting the wait will not be that long, that substantial fiscal measures could be announced sooner by the State Council.