The firm also now expects the Fed to deliver just 75 bps of rate cuts this year, as opposed to the 100 bps in their previous forecast. On the change: “Given the upside surprises to both payrolls and inflation, we now expect the Fed to wait a bit longer before cutting rates, making its first 25 bps cut in June rather than in May”.
This fits with market expectations, with a June rate cut now fully priced in. Meanwhile, odds of a May rate cut are only seen at ~39% now. Here is Adam’s post earlier this week: The Fed and markets are in a rare moment of alignment