UBS says that history shows stocks have performed well in periods when the Fed is cutting rates while the US economy is still growing.
UBS says last week’s FOMC 50bp rate cut bolstered market sentiment in two main ways:
1. Powell expressed a desire to “recalibrate” monetary policy while the US economy remains strong, adding that policymakers saw no need for a further cooling of the labor market to bring inflation sustainably down to the 2% target
2. Powell sought to dispel concerns that the 50-basis-point cut reflected worries that growth is poised to slow abruptly
On the path ahead for Federal Reserve cuts, UBS says the Fed’s path now aligns with their projections:
- 50 basis points of further easing in 2024
- and another 100 points in 2025