- Prior +3.4%
- Core CPI +4.2% vs +4.1% y/y expected
- Prior +4.5%
The pound has nudged higher on the numbers here, as price pressures are holding slightly stronger than estimated. Compared to February, the annual readings still reflect a drop but with core inflation still above 4%, the BOE doesn’t have much room for comfort at the moment.
GBP/USD is up from 1.2420 to 1.2440 but I don’t see this as being a major game changer for the pound. I reckon bets for an August rate cut should be maintained for the most part.
Coming into this report, the odds for a move in August were at ~71% with 42 bps worth of rate cuts priced in for the year. Let’s see how that changes later when the market opens but I doubt we’ll see it differ too drastically.