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Underlying inflation has likely peaked in 1H 2023 – ECB

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  • Median and mean underlying inflation measures suggest that underlying inflation has likely peaked in the first half of 2023
  • Most measures of inflation were showing signs of easing
  • The latest inflation data for July was broadly in line with expectations

This seems to be a supportive piece to manage market expectations I would say. If anything else, it points to further evidence that the ECB is trying to steer markets towards the idea that we might not get another rate hike in September. Adding to the above comments, the central bank also says that its own gauge of services inflation has shown signs of slowing down – as opposed to the hard data which indicates that it is moving higher.

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