US 10 year yield w 200dma
It was a tough one for the bond bulls on Monday as the 10-year ratcheted above the 200-day moving average for the first time since July. I wrote about bonds earlier in the day and the idea that they were pricing out a recession but it’s tough to argue that’s still the trade as the recent range breaks.
The market is sensing some inflationary impulses and a Fed pause much sooner than believed a month ago — as soon as December and more-likely-than-not by the Jan 29 meeting.
The risk is that this leads to some reflexivity back into stocks and the broader economy. The level of rates is certainly relevant for real estate-facing sectors once again. The dollar has also undoubtedly noticed as USD/JPY tracks this chart very closely.