A beefed up equity market forecast via a note from Jefferies Group, a US investment bank/financial services company headquartered in New York City.
In summary, the equity researchers boosted their year-end target for the benchmark index, citing easing inflation, positive economic surprises and fading earnings downgrades:
- Our new base case for the S&P 500 year-end target is 4500 (previously 4050)
- Our bull case of 4850 (previously 4650) assumes FY24 EPS witness almost no cuts and PE of c.20x.
- … bear case of 3500 remains the same factoring in a dotcom like recession
For the balance of this year, the analysts still see growth remaining slow.
I drew in those bull and bear case targets as close as my eyes and wobbly mouse would permit.