The US retail sales report wasn’t a game-changer for tomorrow’s FOMC decision but it offers some angst for those who are expecting a 50 basis point cut.
Sales rose 0.1% compared to -0.2% expected in a sign that the consumer is just fine. The control group, which excludes volatile components on gasoline, autos and building materials, rose 0.3% in line with estimates but the prior was was bumped up by 0.1 pp.
The market reaction was to buy the US dollar and sell bonds but only modestly. EUR/USD fell to 1.1122 from 1.1140 while USD/JPY rose to 141.10 from 140.70.
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The uneasy market reaction could spread to stocks, which have held up so far. S&P 500 futures are up 24 points, or 0.4% ahead of the open.
Fed pricing is still at 67%, the same as it was before the report.