USD/JPY 10 mins
The market reaction to the hotter US CPI report is tough to square. The dollar initially jumped to the best levels of the day but quickly turned lower.
Core and headline CPI was both 0.1 pp higher than expected on a m/m basis and there were no obvious special factors driving the move.
The move is likely related to initial jobless claims, which jumped to 258K from 230K. That has the market pricing in a 91% chance of a Fed cut in November, up from 85% yesterday. There are clearly some hurricane impacts but looking at the southwest, it appears to be something along the lines of 10-15K at most, which doesn’t explain a 33K rise.
Others are pointing to strikes as a potential impact but the market is finding that is a stretch.
There may also be something of a ‘sell the fact’ trade underway. Treasury yields have been rising for a week and 2-years hit 4.05% today but have quickly fallen to 3.97%. I think that partly reflects a low bar to cut in November. Said differently — all the data needs to be hot to prevent a November cut. The CPI number also did trend lower consecutively to 2.4% from 2.5%. So while that’s short of the 2.3% y/y expected, it still heading in the right direction.