In the hierarchy of economic indicators, JOLTS and consumer confidence are about even. Normally, I would rank consumer confidence higher as it’s more of a forward looking indicator.
However, more recently Fed officials have frequently cited falling job openings in the JOLTS report as a reason to cut rates and that indicator is now back to 2019 levels, which should keep rates on a downward path.
On the flipside, consumer confidence had its best one-month improvement since May 2021. That’s a great sign for spending but it might only represent political feelings ahead of the election and falling gasoline prices, so the market may be reluctant to embrace it. The indicator also remains within its narrow two-year range.
So after some initial back-and-forth in the FX market, we’re seeing some downward pressure on the US dollar.
USD/JPY 10 mins