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The US dollar is at the lows of the day as the selling accelerates following a softer retail sales report.
I want to highlight what the bond market is now saying about inflation, with 5-year breakevens now at 2.16%.
That is despite oil prices trading at a six-week high at $80.70.
The bond market is saying that the inflation story is over and the weakness in retail sales says it’s time to start worrying about growth. However we’re very likely to hear Fed officials continuing to fret about inflation today with six of them on the agenda.
The Fed slate is packed and kicks off at the top of the hour with Barkin who participates in an online discussion on the “Outlook for the US Economy and Fed Policy.“
At 11:40 am Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins speaks before the Lawrence Partnership Annual Meeting & 10th Year Anniversary
At 1 pm ET Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler participates in conversation on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Peterson Institute of International Economics
Also at 1 pm ET Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks at CFA Society St. Louis luncheon
Yet again at 1 pm ET, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan participates in moderated question-and-answer session before the Headliners Club Speaker Series, in Austin, Texas
Finally, at 2 pm ET, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee participates in “Economic and Monetary Policy” panel before hybrid 2024 Marshall Forum, in Chicago, Ill.