I want to highlight reecnt comments from the CEOs of Mastercard and Visa.
Mastercard:
“The consumer has been outperforming expectations. Obviously, our business is a good indicator of what the consumer is doing. We’ve more data than probably many others. So what we are seeing is a resilient consumer all throughout”
Visa:
“I think you nailed it when you said stable. Stability, resiliency, in the US and around the world…we put out an 8K last week. Overall, process transactions remain stable at 10%. In the US, I would also say stable”
Today we got initial jobless claims data that pushed back against the idea of softness in the labor market. That’s the kind of thing that will tilt Fed officials towards another November rate hike. You could make the argument that US rates really aren’t that restrictive given the preponderance of 30-year fixed mortgages. A tail risk for 2024 is that they need to go to 7%, particularly with +$100 oil.
The stock market is struggling with how to price good/bad news. I don’t like this ‘good news is bad news’ trading mode right now but it is what it is. S&P 500 futures are down 33 points, or 0.75% and the possibility of a head-and-shoulders top looms.
SPX daily