Non-farm payrolls
- Prior +216K (revised to +333K)
- Two-month net revision -K vs -71K prior
- Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.8% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 3.7%
- Participation rate 62.5% vs 62.5% prior
- U6 underemployment rate 7.2% vs 7.1% prior
- Average hourly earnings +0.6% m/m vs +0.3% expected
- Average hourly earnings +4.5% y/y vs +4.1% expected
- Average weekly hours vs 34.3 expected
- Change in private payrolls +317K vs +164K expected
- Change in manufacturing payrolls +23K vs +5K expected
- Household survey K vs -683K prior
- Birth-death adjustment -121K vs -52K prior
USD/JPY was trading at 146.67 ahead of the data and the market was pricing in 142 bps in cuts by year end and a 34% chance in March of a cut.
This is undoubtedly hawkish and USD/JPY is up to 147.54 immediately with March down to 21% and 127 bps on the year.
This report is reminiscent of last January’s report where there was also a huge beat. There are big seasonal adjustments in January and I think the BLS is struggling with that, something I wrote about at the start of the week.