Core PCE
- Prior month 2.9%
- PCE Core 2.8% vs 2.8% expected. Last month 2.9%
- PCE core MoM 0.4% vs 0.4% expected
- Prior MoM core 0.2% revised to +0.1%
- Headline PCE 2.4% vs 2.4% expected (prior 2.6%). MOM 0.3% vs 0.3% expected
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3 month annualized 2.8%. 6 month annualized 2.6%.
Pre-Covid 2020, it was 1.5% for comparison.
Consumer spending and consumer income for January:
- Personal income 1.0% versus 0.4%. Prior month 0.3%.
- Personal spending 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. Prior month 0.7%
- Real personal spending -0.1% vs 0.6% last month revised from 0.5%).
1 minute prior to the report:
- Markets were pricing 78 bps of cuts in 2024.
- 2- year yield was at 4.689%.
- 10 year yield was at 4.311%.
- S&P index or implying a decline of -16.01 points.
- NASDAQ index was implying a decline of -46.75 points.
After the report:
- 2-year yield 4.666%
- 10 year yield 4.285%
- S&P index +12.0 points
- NASDAQ +76.5 points
The PCE data is largely as expected. Yields are lower/stocks are higher. The US dollar moved lower but has retraced some of those declines. Personal income grew nicely by 1.0%. Spending was moderate.
Continuing claims showed some weakness with a rise to 1.905M from 1.860M last week.