- Prior was +4.6%
- Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.1% vs +0.1% expected
- Prior non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.1% (revised to -0.4%)
- Ex transport +0.5% vs 0.2% expected
- Ex defense -5.4% vs +6.0% prior
Some clunky transport orders have come through the past two months and that’s led to some volatility in this report, as they’re prone to do. The underlying core orders were in-line with estimates this month but note the decent downward revision to the June reading.
On net, this is a softer reading as the manufacturing recession continues. I worry that autos will start to stumble in the next few months and really struggle to get traction in 2024 as rates stay high. Moreover, the UAW is expected to strike in September, which is going to put a big dent in economic data if it lasts any amount of time.