- Prior 4.0%
- CPI MoM 0.2% % versus 0.3% expected
- Prior MoM 0.1%
- CPI YoY 3.0% versus 3.0% expected
- Core CPI MoM 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. Last month 0.4%
- Core CPI YoY 4.8% versus 5.0% expected. Last month was 5.3%
- Shelter 0.4% versus 0.6% last month. Year on year 7.8% versus 8.0% last month
- real weekly earnings month to month 0.5% versus -0.1% last month
Summary from the BLS:
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.2% increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in June, following a 0.1% rise in May. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 3.0% prior to seasonal adjustment. The shelter index was the largest contributor to the monthly increase, accounting for over 70% of it, along with motor vehicle insurance. While the food index rose by 0.1% in June, the index for food at home remained stable and the index for food away from home rose by 0.4%. The energy index rose by 0.6% in June. The all items index increased by 3.0% for the 12 months ending in June, marking the smallest 12-month increase since March 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose by 4.8% over the last year, while the energy index decreased by 16.7% and the food index increased by 5.7% over the same period.
In June, the food index saw a modest increase of 0.1%, with the food at home index remaining unchanged. Major grocery food group indices varied, with fruits and vegetables and cereals and bakery products increasing, while meats, poultry, fish, eggs, and other food at home indices saw decreases. The index for food away from home rose 0.4%. Year-over-year, the food at home index and the food away from home index saw increases of 4.7% and 7.7% respectively.
The energy index saw a 0.6% increase in June, with the gasoline index rising by 1.0%. However, the natural gas and fuel oil indices decreased. The energy index fell 16.7% over the past 12 months.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in June, largely driven by a 0.4% increase in the shelter index. Several indices, such as airline fares and communication, declined over the month. Year-over-year, the index for all items less food and energy increased by 4.8%, with the shelter index contributing significantly to this increase, rising by 7.8%.
The USD has moved lower after the report. Yields are moving lower and the stocks are higher.
- Dow is up 218 points
- S&P is up 35 points
- NASDAQ index is up 160 points
the US debt market:
- 2 year yield is down 15.8 basis points
- 10 year yield is down -8.3 basis points
EURUSD is trading at 1.1066 up from 1.1020 just before the release. The high price for 2023 reached 1.1095. That is next upside target. Close risk is now at 1.10317 (the February 2023 high price).