Nonfarm payrolls
- Prior was +339K (revised to +306K)
- Two-month net revision -6K vs +93K prior
- Unemployment rate 3.6% vs 3.6% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 3.7%
- Participation rate 62.6% vs 62.6% prior
- U6 underemployment rate 6.9% vs 6.7% prior
- Average hourly earnings +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expected
- Average hourly earnings +4.4% y/y vs +4.2% expected
- Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.3 expected
- Change in private payrolls +149K vs +200K expected
- Change in manufacturing payrolls +7K vs 0K expected
- Household survey +273K vs -310K prior
- Birth-death adjustment +26K vs +231K prior
The of 14 straight readings that were higher than the consensus has finally been broken, albeit narrowly. The market was pricing in something higher than the consensus due to strong ADP and the dollar has slumped in the aftermath. One streak that’s still going is 30-straight months of jobs grrowth.
The wage number at 0.4% vs 0.3% is slightly misleading as the unrounded number is 0.358% but it will still get the Fed’s attention.
The initial move in markets was on the headline but it’s quickly pared back as the market focuses on hotter wages.