- Prior was +253K (revised to +294K)
- Two-month net revision +93K vs -149K prior
- Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.5% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 3.4%
- Participation rate 62.6% vs 62.6% prior
- U6 underemployment rate 6.7% vs 6.6% prior
- Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected
- Average hourly earnings +4.3% y/y vs +4.4% expected
- Average weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.4 expected
- Change in private payrolls +283K vs +165K expected
- Change in manufacturing payrolls -2K vs +6K expected
- Household survey -310K vs +139K prior
- Birth-death adjustment +231K vs +378K prior
- Full report
Ahead of the report, the market was pricing a 29% chance of a Fed hike on June 12 and USD/JPY was trading at 138.93.
This is the 15th consecutive report that has beaten the economist consensus. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, government, health care, construction, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance.
The dollar has been stronger in the aftermath of the report and remains higher but the initial spike was largely pared as the market focuses on higher unemployment and lower wage growth. Given the Fed’s bias towards skipping, they likely see this as enough of a slowdown to feel confident in waiting longer, though that could change if we get a large beat in CPI.