PCE core yy
Core PCE (excluding food & energy):
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- Core m/m +0.1% vs +0.2% exp
- Unrounded core PCE +0.1149% vs +0.274% m/m prior
- PCE excluding food, energy and housing +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% m/m prior (revised to +0.2%)
Headline PCE:
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- Headline PCE +2.4% y/y vs +2.5% expected
- Deflator +0.1% m/m vs +0.2% expected
- Unrounded headline +0.1280% vs +0.238% m/m prior
Consumer spending and income for November:
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- Personal income +0.3% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month revised to +0.7%
- Personal spending +0.4% vs +0.5% expected. Prior month revised to +0.3%
- Real personal spending +0.3% vs +0.1% prior
- Savings rate 4.4% vs 4.4% prior
Ahead of the report, the market was pricing in 42.7 bps of easing in 2025.
On Wed, Powell said:
“Estimates based on the consumer-price index and toher data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.5 percent over the 12 months ending in November and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.8 percent.”
This is a surprisingly cool report across the board and the US dollar is selling off while bonds rally.