US CPI m/m
- CPI y/y +3.2% versus 3.3% expected
- Prior y/y 3.7%
- CPI m/m +0.0% versus +0.1% expected
- Prior m/m +0.4%
Core measures:
- Core CPI m/m +0.2% versus +0.3% expected. Last month 0.3%
- Core CPI y/y 4.0% versus 4.1% expected. Last month was 4.1%
- Shelter +0.3% versus +0.6% last month. Year on year % versus 7.2% last month
- Services less rent of shelter +0.3% m/m vs +0.6% prior
- Real weekly earnings % vs -0.2% prior
- Food +0.3% m/m vs +0.2% m/m prior
- Energy -2.5% m/m vs +1.5% m/m prior
- Rents +0.5% vs +0.5% prior
- Owner equivalent rent +0.4% vs +0.6% prior
The US dollar has dropped around 60 pips across the board on the headlines as there is a consistent theme of softness in the numbers. The odds of a December hike have been completely erased and January is down to 7% from 33%.
In fixed income, US Treasury yields are down 9-16 bps with US 10s down 13.8 bps to 4.49% (critically, below 4.50%).