- Advanced reading was +4.9%
- Q2 final reading was +2.1%
- Personal consumption +3.6 vs +4.0% advance reading
- Core PCE prices +2.3 vs +2.4% expected
- PCE prices +2.8% vs +2.9% advance
- GDP deflator +3.5% vs +3.5% expected
- GDP final sales +3.7% vs +3.5% advanced
- Corporate profits after tax +4.1% vs +0.5% in Q2
- Full report
Percentage point changes:
Net trade -0.04 pp vs -0.08 pp advance
Inventories +1.40 pp vs +1.32 pp advance
Govt +0.94 pp vs +0.79 pp advance
Increases in inventories and government spending explain the higher revisions to GDP. At some point, when government spending slows down, those gains will be reversed but inventories are less predictable.
“The update primarily reflected upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and state
and local government spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending,” the release said.
In terms of the market, the slower consumer spending might be the takeaway from this report. Dollar Tree today also cut its guidance and highlighted that the low-income consumer is struggling. Both point to a slowdown in the consumer ahead, which will end the inflation threat.