The final piece of the Fed puzzle will be released today with the November retail sales report. This is a tricky one and it could disappoint because Thanksgiving and the Black Friday weekend were so late in November. Of course, that contrasts with a secular trend towards earlier Christmas shopping and discounting so the consensus lands on +0.5% m/m with the control group at +0.4%.
Meanwhile, Canada remains in focus with the November CPI report. The Bank of Canada cut by 50 basis points last week and the market is pricing in a 56% chance of a 25 bps cut on January 29. There will be a second CPI report before then so it’s not a pivotal number but it will be a market mover. The consensus is +2.0% y/y on the headline.
Domestically, it looks like Trudeau isn’t going anywhere but an election could be forced in February if he sticks around.