retail sales control group
Given that CPI was already released yesterday, PPI is unlikely to be much of a market mover but the retail sales report is an important one. Fed officials have emphasized slowing inflation alone isn’t enough to bring prices back to a sustainable 2% target, they want to see the economy slow down as well. Some of that is happening in the employment market but a weakening consumer would go a long ways towards the Fed’s goals.
The line to watch in the report is always the ‘control group’ which excludes gas, autos and building materials.
A hint of what’s to come may have been delivered by Target today as it highlighted slowing sales but not nearly as much as the market was fearing, leading to a 13.5% jump in the stock price.