USD/CHF weekly chart
The dollar destruction this week is also being exemplified in USD/CHF price action, as the pair falls through 0.8800 and breaks the 2021 low of 0.8757 over the past few sessions. That is now taking price to its lowest levels since January 2015, when the SNB decided to pull the rug from under the market’s feet when they removed the EUR/CHF floor at 1.2000 at the time.
The fact that the SNB continues to retain a more hawkish tone and the fact that the Fed might be looking to pause is also a reason for a divergence trade of sorts. But I would argue the shift in policy narrative for the dollar is what is impacting the pair more significantly at the moment, considering the dollar breakdown elsewhere too.
Going back to USD/CHF, this is one of those charts where the technicals are going to offer little guidance. As such, the rout will stop when it stops. It’s now a case of being wary not to catch a falling knife, especially since the dollar is looking like it is set to fall further against other major currencies as well.
The January 2015 low is going to be a different level for most people, depending on your broker and which chart source you are looking at. For mine, it is showing 0.8336 but it could be higher or lower for others. As such, this is one of those times where the exact level isn’t going to offer much of a guide as to where the key support might be.
Instead, considering the pocket of space that price action can still fall from here, it puts trading sentiment in a spot where sellers are well in control and as mentioned, the rout will stop when it stops. There’s no point trying to pluck support levels out of thin air from here.